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US to withdraw from NATO under Republican Bill : politics
Main Post: US to withdraw from NATO under Republican Bill : politics
CMV: The US is now all-but-certain to become a dictatorship.
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I had a conversation with a Trump voter whose stated reasons came down to lower taxes and fewer regulations. When I brought the conversation to "Trump wants to be a dictator," he didn't argue the point, but said that he trusted the Constitution's checks and balances would prevent that. He was very smug about it, too, as if thinking democracy needed protection made me less patriotic. That was in 2019. I've been thinking about it a lot recently.
I don't think Trump is a dictator yet, but I think we've reached a point of no return. Like a board game where even if there are technically a few turns left, one player has guaranteed themselves the win.
Republicans neutered the legislature decades ago by turning the filibuster from a rarity into a de facto supermajority requirement for passage of any law. Republican majorities today are letting Trump steal their remaining powers: redirecting and withholding government money (the 'Power of the Purse'), ignoring existing laws, giving consent for nearly anyone he nominates, no matter how outrageous. Does anyone really think enough Republican senators and congressmen will act to stop him if he makes moves to steal an election? Does anyone think they'd vote to impeach and remove him under any circumstances? They didn't in 2020, even after he sent a mob that threatened to kill some of them. They're even more submissive today.
The Republican majority in the Supreme Court already granted Trump immunity from prosecution for nearly anything he does in office, and he's made clear that he'll abuse his pardon power to grant the same to anyone he considers loyal. In his first term, he backed down when the courts ruled against him, but this term his administration is issuing blatantly unconstitutional executive orders, and his vice president has been misquoting Andrew Jackson: "The court has made its decision; now let it enforce it". Does anyone really think he'll submit to the court's authority this time, if it really matters? Would anything happen if he didn't?
That leaves the voters, but with a compromised legislature and Supreme Court, there's little to stop Republicans from fixing elections in 2026 and 2028, whether through intimidation, fraud, or legal challenges, during and after the fact. Some states will resist, but they don't need every state, only enough to keep power and slant the elections further the next time. And given a few more years of purging and replacing members of law enforcement, intelligence, and the military with loyalists (a process which is already starting), he'll have no reason to fear the legislature, the courts, or the voters. Rule of law will be dead, and he'll have the guys with the guns.
I don't know how long the dictatorship will last (he's old, and who knows what comes out of the power struggle when he dies), but I think it's all but certain now that we'll have one. I would very much like to be wrong. Please change my view.
Top Comment: Changing your view here is simple: Most of what you list above is inaccurate, wildly exaggerated, or based on online hysteria. Republican majorities today are letting Trump steal their remaining powers The power of the President has not changed at all since Biden. Trump is merely using those powers in ways you dislike. That is not evidence those powers have changed, or will be changed, or are more threatening now than they were under Biden, or will not be overturned by the courts. Does anyone really think enough Republican senators and congressmen will act to stop him if he makes moves to steal an election They did in 2020. They didn't in 2020, even after he sent a mob that threatened to kill some of them. Because by that point he was no longer president. You cannot impeach someone who is not President. the Supreme Court already granted Trump immunity from prosecution for nearly anything he does in office Incorrect. He has immunity from "official acts." Murdering someone is not an "official act". Neither is screwing the secretary, pissing on the front lawn, overturning an election, or committing genocide, as so many people like to claim he's about to do. It is far less permissive a ruling than the hysterical segments of the internet want to pretend because it's fun to be dramatic. there's little to stop Republicans from fixing elections in 2026 and 2028, whether through intimidation, fraud, or legal challenges, during and after the fact. Wait a minute, we have all been reliably informed that election fraud is impossible in America for any number of reasons. That was the absolute truth after 2020, and anyone who said otherwise was a fascist. Is that no longer the case? What has changed to make our elections suddenly guaranteed to be rigged? I could continue, but the answer seems obvious. You, like so many people on Reddit, are being carried away with hysteria. All of these fears are exaggerated and overblown at best, if not completely fabricated. None of this is going to happen. Trump barely has a majority in Congress, and there are moderates on all sides. He had a super majority in 2016 and none of these things happened. They are even less likely to happen now with a far more narrow majority. Step away from the internet for a bit. Take a deep breath, touch grass, and realize that people on both sides are trying to manipulate you by making you afraid.
CMV: Conservatives Will Dominate America for the Next ~20 Years
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Note: By “conservatives,” I mean both Republicans and conservative Democrats.
Trump’s win in November was resounding in every way except the final popular vote tally. Trump won every swing state, and every state moved to the right. Trump fell short of a true majority of the popular vote and only won it by 1.5 points, but it was still the first time a Republican won the popular vote since 2004. Additionally, Republicans won over millions of voters from majority-Democratic voting blocs.
Many left-leaning people have claimed, falsely, that Democrats lost due to low turnout. In truth, the 2024 election saw the second-highest turnout of any presidential election, and swing states like Georgia and North Carolina saw record turnout. By all metrics, the Harris-Walz team’s attempts to “get out the vote” worked. They successfully got out the vote... for Trump. Indeed, Trump won both Independents and first-time voters. Trump won because of high turnout. High turnout no longer benefits Democrats.
All post-election polling has suggested that Republicans are now the more popular party. Overall, America shifted to the right by four points in 2024. One poll found that 43 percent of voters viewed Democrats favorably and 50 percent viewed them unfavorably. Increasingly, Democrats are viewed as affluent, out-of-touch, college-educated elites who ask for votes and never return the favor. Most voters trust Republicans more on the economy, immigration, and crime. The economy and immigration were the two most important issues for voters last year. Most voters support mass deportations, which Trump has repeatedly promised to begin on day one. It’s obvious that MAGA has won over the majority of voters, which is also why Democrats are starting to move towards the center on issues, immigration chief among them.
The shifts among key demographics are even more alarming. Harris barely won a majority of the Latino vote, and most Latino men voted for Trump. Harris won Asians nationally, but Asians in Nevada shifted to the right by more than 50 points. Democrats may have permanently lost the Muslim vote because Muslims hate Jews Israel “genocide,” and the recent ceasefire deal, in which Trump was apparently instrumental, might have been the final nail in the coffin, especially considering Muslims’ social views make white evangelicals seem progressive. That could mean that Democrats will never again win Michigan. Other racial and religious groups, such as blacks and Jews, also shifted to the right by smaller amounts.
However, the most alarming shift is among young voters. According to the AP VoteCast, Harris only won young voters by 4 points; Biden carried them by more than 30. Young men especially are rapidly shifting towards the GOP. The reasons for this shift are debated, though many attribute it to perceived abandonment and/or demonization of men by the left. Also worth noting are the issues that are genuinely worse for men, such as the male suicide rate. For instance, the percentage of college students who are female now is roughly equal to the percentage of college students who were male prior to Title IX, and college enrollment among men is declining. More and more men are opting for trade schools instead, largely due to costs. This is important because college-educated people tend to be more liberal (the so-called “diploma divide”), while tradespeople tend to be very conservative. Lastly, since young voters’ views tend to be the most malleable, it stands to reason that more and more young voters will embrace MAGA.
This shift to the right is not limited to the US. In fact, the West as a whole is moving sharply to the right, largely for the same reasons as the US: the economy and immigration. The Conservatives are all but guaranteed to take control of Canada later this year and were even before Trudeau’s resignation. Although Labour took control of Parliament just last year, its popularity has already plummeted, and Reform UK’s popularity has surged. The SPD is poised to get voted out this year, and the AfD is becoming more popular by the minute. Now, the situation in Europe is different - and frankly, more dire - than the situation here in the States. Europe is currently facing widespread economic stagnation, and European society is being upended by immigration, particularly from the Islamic world. Similarly, largely unrestricted immigration in Canada has inflated home prices and created numerous social issues. As a result, left-wing parties haven’t been this unpopular since the Cold War, and right-wing populist parties who claim to have solutions are rapidly gaining popularity. Arguably, Trump’s comeback was the final nail in the coffin for the progressivism of the early century. At the time of writing, all signs point to a generation of right-wing dominance of America and the West as a whole.
Top Comment: I mean the Democrats will just change their strategy to become competitive again. You are correct that the current Democratic Party has failed but keep in mind that the Republican Party had already failed in a similar fashion after Bush. Parties change all the time, and rather rapidly.
Trump nominates former House Republican for US ambassador to Canada
Main Post: Trump nominates former House Republican for US ambassador to Canada
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For anyone else who finds these headlines infuriating, it's Peter Hoekstra of Michigan.
Republican Party gave us this super handy list of everyone not to vote for!!! Thanks GOP for your help!!!
Main Post: Republican Party gave us this super handy list of everyone not to vote for!!! Thanks GOP for your help!!!
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As an educator it stands out that they want voters to vote “No” on the school bonds. Bonds are essential and fund school property and projects, and help maintain the property. When I turned 18 and was about to vote for the first time my mom told me, “You can vote for any candidate you want, but don’t ever vote against kids”.
The Political Education of US Physicians
Main Post: The Political Education of US Physicians
Top Comment: The fact that it almost directly correlates with median income is confirming a lot of my priors lmao
Younger voters are with us
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Purely anecdotal
My daughter and many of her millennial friends are now all in to vote for KH. She had previously told me most of them were not going to vote at all(despite my pleading).
I know this is a just a handful of young women, but it's my hope that GenZ is also on board, too.
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My 19-year-old daughter says the same thing. I could not talk her into voting for Biden but she will vote for KH. Maybe the young voters will save the day.
It's looking like we're about to enter a unified Republican government in the US. Thoughts?
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So...
It's looking like republicans will achieve a sweeping victory and control the White House, SCOTUS, Senate, and House. Doing some light, preliminary research, it actually appears that this is more common in American history than I would have realized (although it's been a while since Democrats have enjoyed a fully unified government that includes the judicial). Still, given the nature of MAGA rhetoric, I can't lie; it freaks me out. What are y'alls' thoughts? What's a defensive strategy for the next four years? Focus on local politics? Or does that herald the continued collapse of national institutions as we move to increasingly regional identities and politics?
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I mean until the midterms all we can do is focus on local politics to try and either mitigate the damage, make some improvements and rally support for the next federal level elections